ISLAMABAD (TIME) -- Iran’s neighbors could play a decisive role in determining whether any sanctions aimed at Tehran are effective — and one Iran neighbor from whom the U.S. should expect little support on the issue is Pakistan.

Ostensibly Washington’s key ally in the troubled region, Pakistan also maintains a longtime friendship with Tehran. And as President Asif Ali Zardari’s government moves to strengthen ties with its neighbor in a bid to enhance Pakistan’s economic prospects, Islamabad is keen to sit out the nuclear dispute.
“The government of Pakistan, and the average Pakistani citizen, looks at Iran as a friendly nation,” Pakistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Malik Amad Khan, told TIME in an interview. After Iran, Pakistan has the second largest Shiite Muslim population; its 33 million Shiites constitute nearly double the number in Iraq. Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, both countries were members of the anti-Soviet CENTO security pact, and despite the Islamic Republic’s anti-U.S. stance, Pakistan became one of the first countries to recognize the Revolutionary government.
Amad Khan, Pakistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, dismisses suggestions of lingering Pakistani support for Iran’s nuclear program. “We have a three-tier system that prevents proliferation,” he told TIME. But Islamabad is happy for Tehran to acquire nuclear capability for energy uses. “Since Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, if it requires capability for energy, we have no problems with that.” The Deputy Foreign Minister added that Pakistan sees Iran as a “responsible” nation and therefore “doesn’t expect Iran to pursue nuclear-weapons capability.”
The Deputy Foreign Minister declined to comment on how Islamabad would react in the event of sanctions or tougher forms of pressure on Iran. Instead, Islamabad’s focus remains on an “enhanced level of engagement” that can draw Iranian support for Pakistan’s “energy, trade and communications” sectors. The new relationship with Iran has already seen a 28% rise in trade, according to Deputy Minister Khan, and with chronic shortages of electricity supply, Islamabad is eagerly awaiting the construction of a decades-old proposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline — plans for which remain doubtful.
Pakistan’s civilian government also views Iranian influence as a potential foil to that of Saudi Arabia, which has stronger ties with the opposition. Government officials privately accuse the Saudis of being prejudiced toward Zardari because of his Shiite background. But Pakistan’s response to Iran will ultimately be determined by the all-powerful military establishment, says Christine Fair of the RAND Corp. in Washington.
A number of different domestic political factors will keep Pakistan on the sidelines of any showdown over Iran’s nuclear program. With anti-Americanism running high — an August poll by the Pew Research Center revealed that 64% of Pakistanis “regard (the U.S.) as an enemy” — backing new sanctions against Iran could provoke a domestic backlash. “It would be seen as Pakistan against the Muslim world,” says analyst Fair. -